ETH October 17 Market Analysis
1. Trend Analysis
· Clear bearish pattern: Price is below all short to medium-term EMAs (EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA72)
· Unique Support: Only EMA180(3,618.17) still provides long-term support.
· Bearish moving average alignment: EMA5 < EMA10 < EMA20 < EMA72, presenting a standard bearish trend.
· Significant decline from a high: dropped from a peak of 4,765 to the current price level, a decrease of over 17%
2. Price Position Analysis
· Key support test: After gaining initial support at 3,823.50 (24-hour low), the price slightly rebounds.
· Strong resistance: The dense EMA moving averages above create layers of resistance.
· At a decision point: the current price is seeking direction between short-term support and medium-term resistance.
3. Volume Analysis
· Limited reference for trading volume: MA5 and MA10 data may have issues, but overall it shows that market participation is average.
4. Price Structure Analysis
· Resistance levels:
· Strong Resistance 1: 3,998.82 (EMA5)
· Strong Resistance 2: 4,074.17 (EMA10)
· Strong Resistance 3: 4,122.43 (EMA72)
· Support Levels:
· Key support: 3,823.50 (24-hour low)
· Strong support: 3,618.17 (EMA180)
Trend prediction
Most likely scenario (55% probability): continue to fluctuate downwards.
1. Reason: Bearish moving average alignment + Weak rebound + Technical aspects leaning bearish
2. Downward Target:
· First target: 3,823.50 (testing previous low)
· Second target: 3,718-3,650 range
· Key Target: 3,618.17 (EMA180)
Possible scenario (30% probability): Technical rebound
1. Condition: A buying momentum appears based on the effective support of 3,823.
2. Rebound target: 3,998-4,074 range (EMA5-EMA10 resistance zone)
3. Nature judgment: If it cannot break through 4,074, it is still a downward continuation.
Low probability scenario (15% probability): Strong reversal
1. Condition: Breakthrough 4,122 with increased volume and hold steady.
2. Feature: Major positive developments emerge
3. Extremely low probability: Current technical indicators do not support a strong reversal.
Trading Suggestions
For long holders:
· It is recommended to reduce positions on rebounds: consider reducing positions in the range of 3,950-4,000.
· Strict stop loss: set below 3,820
· If it falls below 3,823, you should immediately exit and observe.
For short-sellers/wait-and-see investors:
· You can short with a light position at 3,920-3,950, with a stop loss above 4,000.
· Target levels: 3,830, 3,720, 3,650
· Wait for a callback to the 3,650-3,620 support area before considering long positions.
Risk Control Focus:
· Key Observation Points:
· Is 3,823 support effective?
· 3,998 resistance strength
· Change in trading volume
· Short Stop Loss: Break through 4,020
· Long position entry point: 3,650-3,620 (near EMA180)
Risk Warning
1. The technical outlook is broadly bearish, and a strong performance in the short term is unlikely.
2. The EMA180 support at 3,618 is the last line of defense and needs to be closely monitored.
3. The overall market sentiment is weak, affecting the independent movement of ETH.
4. It is recommended to operate with a light position, strictly set stop losses, and control risks.
Summary: ETH is currently in a clear bearish trend, with multiple technical indicators supporting further decline. In the short term, it may oscillate in the range of 3,823-3,998 before choosing a direction, with a higher probability of moving downward. The operation should mainly focus on shorting at highs, with strict risk control, patiently waiting for better long entry opportunities.

The real path from 2000 to 10 million: I turned my debts around with these three tricks, and the last one is something most people can't do.
When I first entered the crypto world, I only had 1000 yuan for living expenses, and now there are over 10 million lying in my account. It's not luck, but rather I developed a "brutal rolling method" through sheer perseverance.
Stage One: The Wild Growth of 200U (Key: Be sure to avoid greed)
A common mistake made by newcomers is "wanting to turn 5000 yuan directly into 1 million," and as a result, they lose everything in three days. My starting strategy is extremely counterintuitive:
200U Sniper Strategy: Only chase the top 10 coins by trading volume in the last 24 hours (such as hot coins like PEPE and WIF), but strictly adhere to two iron rules:
Profit over 80% withdraw principal immediately (100U becomes 180U, withdraw 80U right away)
Cut losses directly at 30% (Stop loss immediately when 100U is reduced to 70U)
Three consecutive wins rule: After winning 3 times in a row, you must stop (100→180→324→583U). At this point, the account will have about 500-600U, immediately transfer it to the wallet for cold storage for 24 hours - this is to prevent impulsive trading during the "sage time".
Phase Two: 3D Harvesting after 1000U (Most people get stuck here)
When the funds exceed 1000U, it is necessary to operate with divided positions.
1. Blitzkrieg
Only operate at 4 PM / 8 PM Beijing time (when European and American institutions enter the market)
"Pinning Market" Focused on BTC/ETH: Place a long order at the support level (for example, when BTC falls to a key moving average), close the position after a 2% rebound, and only do 1 trade per day.
2. Hedge Position (30% of funds)
Track the listing announcements on Coinbase and plan ahead.
Use 5x leverage to trade new coin IEO, must sell within 30 minutes of opening.
3. Nuclear Weapons (50% funds)
Only make a move 2-3 times a year, but earn 300%+ each time.
Need to combine "Federal Reserve interest rate hike calendar + on-chain whale movements" (for example, before the Federal Reserve meeting on June 12, I will monitor the BTC withdrawal addresses on Coinbase)
Last year's bull market saw countless people making seven figures only to lose it all again, with the core failure resting on three points:
1. The ritual of stop-loss: After each stop-loss, write the reason for the error by hand and post it on the wall.
2. Withdrawal Freezing Technique: Whenever profit reaches 50%, immediately convert 25% into USDT and deposit it into the cold wallet #炒币 #币圈
3. Time Lock: Use an Android backup device to operate, forcibly lock the device every day from 14:00 to 16:00.
If your account balance is less than 10,000 U now, execute the first phase immediately; if you are already in the 100,000 U range but cannot break through, what you need is a new strategy and to allocate your funds properly.