Solana Founder: Bitcoin Faces Quantum Catastrophe, May Be Completely Cracked Before 2030

Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko made astonishing remarks at the 2025 All-In Summit, predicting a 50% chance of breakthroughs in quantum computing within five years, and stated that if Bitcoin does not complete its quantum resistance upgrade before 2030, its security mechanisms will be completely overturned. This rare warning triggered turbulence in the cryptocurrency market, as experts assessed the reality of the quantum threat and response strategies.

Quantum Threat Countdown: Is the Security Myth of Bitcoin About to Collapse?

Fifteen years after the birth of blockchain technology, the crypto world faces a real existential threat for the first time. Anatoly Yakovenko's remarks not only took the audience by surprise but also sparked intense discussions about the future of Bitcoin within the global crypto community.

“The possibility of a quantum computing breakthrough by 2030 is 50%,” Yakovenko bluntly stated during his speech, “this is not alarmism, but a rational assessment based on the current trajectory of technological development.”

He specifically pointed out that the synchronous advancement of artificial intelligence and advanced semiconductor processes may allow quantum hardware to surpass current limits in a short period of time, posing a direct impact on Bitcoin, which relies on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA).

“We are in a race against time,” commented a cryptography expert, “the pace of advancements in quantum computing far exceeds most people's expectations, while the Bitcoin community's preparedness for this threat is clearly insufficient.”

How can quantum computing destroy the security mechanisms of Bitcoin?

To understand the severity of quantum threats, it is first necessary to understand their attack mechanisms. In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor created Shor's algorithm, which can effectively solve the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem, which is the cornerstone of Bitcoin's cryptographic security.

“Once quantum computers reach a sufficient number of qubits, they will be able to deduce private keys from public addresses,” explained a blockchain security researcher. “This is equivalent to being able to forge any transaction signature and transfer assets, and the entire security model of Bitcoin will completely collapse.”

Security researcher David Carvalho has long warned that the progress of quantum hardware could be “far faster than imagined.” If this prediction comes true, the current cryptographic defenses of Bitcoin will be like an old safe facing a thief equipped with a master key, essentially useless.

“The security of Bitcoin is based on the computational difficulty of specific mathematical problems,” said a cryptography professor, “quantum computing is precisely the perfect tool designed to crack such problems.”

Post-Quantum Cryptography: The Last Line of Defense for Bitcoin

In the face of the increasingly imminent quantum threat, the cryptography community has begun actively developing solutions for post-quantum cryptography (PQC). The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has adopted algorithms such as CRYSTALS-Dilithium as the next generation standard, providing a new shield for digital security.

“The core of post-quantum cryptography lies in finding mathematical problems that are sufficiently difficult even for quantum computers,” explained an expert involved in the NIST standardization, “These new algorithms can maintain equivalent security in the quantum era, but the implementation methods are completely different.”

The industry is evaluating hybrid signature solutions that allow traditional and PQC to coexist, reducing the risks associated with a one-time switch. This concept of “cryptographic agility” is gaining more attention, enabling nodes to quickly replace the underlying algorithms as needed in the future through modular design.

However, the implementation of PQC faces significant challenges. “The PQC signature size is generally much larger, about 5 to 50 times that of the current ones,” pointed out a blockchain developer, “this means that the transaction data volume and transaction fees will increase simultaneously, and the storage and bandwidth burden on nodes will also rise significantly.”

How to strike a balance between security and efficiency has become a new challenge faced by developers.

Bitcoin Upgrade Time Window and Governance Challenges

There is a significant divide within the Bitcoin community regarding the urgency of quantum threats. Blockstream CEO Adam Back has previously stated that quantum computers are “difficult to deploy in practice” at this stage, while Jan3 founder Samson Mow emphasized that before Bitcoin fails, “other systems will break first.”

However, Yakovenko's warning has injected new urgency into the debate. “We cannot wait until the threat becomes a reality to start taking action,” he emphasized in his speech, “by then it may be too late.”

If Bitcoin needs to upgrade its quantum resistance, it will inevitably require a hard fork. Past experience shows that hard forks are often accompanied by ideological conflicts and risks of chain splits, and the governance costs should not be underestimated.

“The conservatism of the Bitcoin community is a double-edged sword,” analyzed a cryptocurrency governance expert. “It ensures the stability of the protocol, but it may also hinder necessary technological upgrades. In the face of quantum threats, this conservatism could become a fatal weakness.”

According to technical analysis, the development team needs to first present a clear path, including testnet verification, comparison of soft and hard fork plans, and a multi-stage transition mechanism. Otherwise, when quantum computing truly comes to fruition, the community may miss the golden defense window due to disagreements.

Global Response: Proactive Measures by Institutions and Nations

In the face of potential quantum threats, some forward-thinking institutions and countries have begun to take action. Countries like El Salvador, which have incorporated Bitcoin into their treasury, are trying to transfer part of their national Bitcoin reserves to custodial solutions that support PQC, indicating that proactive measures are becoming a consensus.

“This is not just a technical issue, but also a national security issue,” said an international financial security expert. “For countries that have incorporated Bitcoin into their national strategic assets, quantum threats are directly related to national wealth security.”

The industry is also actively discussing the incorporation of NIST standard algorithms into wallets and signature hardware, or using multi-signature schemes to first protect high-value addresses. Once the PQC algorithms mature, miners, exchanges, and node software will need to upgrade synchronously in order to maintain overall consistency in the network.

“We are witnessing an unprecedented technological upgrade race,” commented a blockchain consultant, “this is not just about Bitcoin, but about the future of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem.”

Future Outlook: Can Bitcoin Survive in the Quantum Era?

From technological innovation to governance decisions, Bitcoin is facing unprecedented stress tests. Whether the quantum wave will crash ashore in five years remains uncertain, but “being prepared” has replaced “unnecessary worries” as the mainstream view.

“The warning from the Solana founder is like a countdown timer,” a cryptocurrency analyst said, “It reminds the entire industry: quantum threats will not wait for consensus to form, the earlier the action, the lower the cost.”

To maintain its status as “digital gold,” Bitcoin must position itself on both technological and governance fronts, building a secure architecture that can be upgraded at any time. This means that the community needs to start seriously discussing the roadmap for quantum resistance upgrades and prepare for potential hard forks.

“The true value of Bitcoin lies in its adaptability and survivability,” summarized a long-time Bitcoin supporter, “If it can successfully cope with quantum challenges, it will further prove its position as the ultimate store of value.”

In the face of the new game brought by quantum computing, there is no retreat space in the crypto world, only full-speed sprinting. Whether Bitcoin can complete this crucial upgrade before 2030 will determine its final positioning in the history of digital assets.