XRP ETF hype heats up! Price holds at $2.9, $3.00 becomes the key range-bound battle.

The price of Ripple (XRP) recently surged past the psychological barrier of $3, driven by expectations of Spot ETF approval, but then retreated to around $2.94. As BlackRock's iShares XRP Trust application comes into focus and supply changes on exchanges fuel supply and demand speculation, the $3.00 resistance level is becoming the central battleground in the Bull vs Bear Battle.

ETF Craze and Supply-Demand Doubts

ETF Catalysis: The market expects the SEC to review multiple Spot ETF applications, and XRP has broken through 3 dollars for the first time since August 28.

Ripple Restrictions: Due to the SEC lawsuit ruling, Ripple is still prohibited from directly selling XRP to institutional investors, forcing ETF issuers to procure from exchanges or OTC platforms.

Exchange Dynamics: Major CEX has recently reduced its XRP holdings by 69%, sparking market speculation that it may be liquidity reserves for the BlackRock ETF.

Legal Background and Market Perspectives

Court ruling: In 2024, Judge Torres ruled that Ripple violated U.S. securities laws, imposing a fine of $125 million and issuing an institutional sales ban.

Lawyer's view: Crypto lawyer Fred Rispoli pointed out that Ripple has adjusted its retail sales model, but the specific details and legality remain unclear.

Regulatory risk: Although the likelihood of the new SEC re-filing is extremely low, regulatory policy remains a key variable affecting the market.

BlackRock's Potential Role

Large CEX reduction: Currently holding about 132 million XRP, significantly down from the strategic reserve of 750 million XRP.

ETF Experience: BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin Trust and ETHA Ethereum Trust have both achieved tremendous success in the Spot ETF market, with IBIT net inflows reaching $58.8 billion.

Potential Impact: If XRP ETF demand replicates the BTC ETF model, the price may challenge the historical high of $3.66.

Key Technical Levels

(Source: Trading View)

Support level: 2.80 USD, 2.70 USD, 2.50 USD

Resistance level: $3.00, $3.335, $3.66 (historical high)

Short-term bullish conditions:

1. ETF approval passed

2. Institutional holdings increase

3. XRP obtained a chartered banking license in the United States.

Bearish Risk:

1. The legislative delay of the “Market Structure Bill”

2. Institutional adoption is below expectations

3. SWIFT maintains its monopoly on cross-border payments

Scenario Simulation

Bullish Scenario

1. BlackRock ETF approved

2. Institutions and payment platforms accelerate the adoption of Ripple technology

3. The market structure bill has passed, clarifying the regulatory environment.

Target price: Breakthrough the historical high of 3.66 USD

Bearish Scenario

1. Legislative and regulatory headwinds

2. ETF review delayed or rejected

3. Insufficient institutional demand

Risk price: Break below $2.80, testing $2.50 support

Conclusion

The current price trend of XRP is being pushed towards a critical turning point by ETF expectations and changes in supply and demand. If it can effectively break through the resistance level of 3.00 USD and maintain buying momentum, challenging the historical high of 3.66 USD is not impossible. However, the uncertainty of regulation and legislation means that in the short term, the Bull vs Bear Battle will still be intense at key price levels.