Why could the XRP ETF trigger a 60% pump? Key catalysts and technical analysis.

Ripple (XRP) reported at $2.87 on September 8, with a daily volume of $5.55 billion and a market capitalization of $167.35 billion, ranking as the fourth largest crypto asset in the world. Although the short-term trend is under pressure, market focus is shifting towards a potential major catalyst – an ETF linked to XRP. If the product is approved, XRP could replicate the 60% pump pattern seen after the Bitcoin ETF listing, with prices expected to hit $4.50.

The concept of ETF heats up, BlackRock becomes a key observation point

Market speculation regarding the XRP ETF stems from BlackRock's participation in Ripple's Swell 2025 conference held in New York on November 4-5. BlackRock's Digital Assets Director, Maxwell Stein, will discuss tokenized assets with senior executives from Moody's. Although the agenda does not explicitly mention the XRP ETF, his attendance has sparked investor associations.

Currently, BlackRock has launched Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and XRP has not been included, possibly due to the long-standing lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC. However, the case concluded last month, paving the way for new institutional products.

Technical Analysis: $2.87 is the Key Resistance Level

(Source: Trading View)

The 4-hour chart shows that XRP is in a descending channel, constrained in the short-term by the 200-day moving average ($2.87), with the 50-day moving average ($2.81) also posing pressure. Each test of $2.87 has failed, with an RSI of 46 indicating weak momentum.

If it breaks below 2.76 dollars, the next support level is at 2.70 dollars and 2.62 dollars. Conversely, if it breaks through 2.87 dollars with volume, it is expected to challenge 2.95 dollars and 3.04 dollars.

Why might ETFs bring a 60% pump?

After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, it surged over 60% in the short-term due to institutional capital inflow. If the XRP ETF is approved, institutional investors may replicate this pattern. At the current price, a 60% increase would bring XRP to $4.50, and it is expected to further rise when the overall Crypto Assets market strengthens.

Long-term Prospects and Risk Management

In the short term, the trend of XRP depends on whether it can hold the support level of 2.70 USD. In the long term, milestones such as central bank adoption, cross-border payment applications, and ETFs will be the core driving forces behind price movements. Investors need to be patient and maintain risk control while waiting for a potential breakthrough.

Conclusion

XRP is currently at the intersection of technical pressure and potential fundamental positive factors. If the ETF comes true, it could become the key spark to ignite the next round of market activity, and replicating Bitcoin's pump path is not impossible. The market will closely watch for signals from the Ripple Swell 2025 conference and BlackRock's next moves in the digital assets space.