Coin, stocks, bonds: A perspective on a leveraged cycle

Coins, stocks, and bonds are the pillars of each other, gold and BTC jointly support U.S. bonds as collateral, and stablecoins support the global adoption rate of the US dollar, a structure that makes losses in the deleveraging process more social. This article is based on an article written by Zoye and compiled and written by Foresight News. (Synopsis: Bridgewater Dario: Cryptocurrencies can become US dollar “alternative currency”, US debt heart disease is about to explode) (Background added: Bitcoin's “red month”: why September still dominates the cryptocurrency cycle) The cycle stems from leverage, from the fast-dying Meme coin, to the 80-year technical combo, human beings can always find some kind of strength, belief or organization to create more wealth, we briefly review the current historical coordinates, to frame the interweaving of currency stocks and bonds why is important. Since the Geographical Discoveries at the end of the 15th century, the core economies of capitalism have undergone the following changes: – Spain and Portugal – physical gold and silver + brutal colonial plantations – Netherlands – stocks + corporations ( Dutch East India Company ) – Great Britain – gold standard + colonial scissors difference ( rule by force + institutional design + Imperial System of Preferences ) – USA – USD + US Debt + Military Strongholds ( abandon direct colonization and take control of important strongholds ) It should be noted that successors will absorb the advantages and disadvantages of the former, such as the United Kingdom will also adopt the corporate system and the stock system, the United States will also rule by force, here to capture the innovation points of the new hegemon, based on the above facts, Two characteristics of the trajectory of classical capitalism can be found: – Hegemonic Kopp's law: just as animals have a tendency to grow larger in evolution, the size of the core economy will become larger ( the Netherlands - > the United Kingdom - > the United States ); – Economic debt cycle: real assets and commodity production will give way to finance, a classic capitalist power trajectory, that is, the process of raising funds for profit through new financial innovations; – Leverage eventually collapsed: From Dutch equities to Wall Street derivatives, return pressures eclipsed collateral, debt could not be discharged, and new economies took their place. The United States is already at the limit of its global dominance, and what follows is the long closing moment of “You have me, I have you.” U.S. debt will eventually be uncontrollable, like the British Empire after the Boer War, but to maintain a decent end, financial products such as currency stocks and bonds that extend the countdown to the debt collapse will be needed. Gold and BTC jointly support U.S. bonds as collateral, and stablecoins support the global adoption rate of the U.S. dollar, making the loss of the deleveraging process more social. 6 ways to combine coins, stocks and bonds Everything that makes people happy is nothing more than a dream. Becoming larger and more complex is the natural law of all financial instruments and even organisms, and when a species enters its peak, it is followed by disorderly involution, more and more complex horns, feathers, are the response to the increased difficulty of courtship. Tokenomics originated from Bitcoin, creating an on-chain financial system out of nothing, and the market value of $2 trillion in BTC, compared to the size of nearly $40 trillion in U.S. bonds, is destined to only play a mitigating role, and Ray Dalio frequently shouts that gold hedges the dollar in the same way. Stock market liquidity has become a new pillar of tokens, Pre IPO marketization has the possibility of tokenization, stock on-chain has also become a new carrier after electronicization, and the DAT ( treasury ) strategy is the main axis in the first half of 2025. However, it should be noted that there is no need to talk about the on-chain of US bonds, but the issuance of bonds based on tokens, as well as corporate bonds, etc. are still in the trial period, but they have finally begun small-scale practice. Image caption: The number of ETFs is growing, image source: @MarketCharts Stablecoins have become independent narratives, tokenized funds, debt will become new synonyms for RWA, and index funds, comprehensive ETFs anchored to more coin stock and bond concepts have also begun to have funds entered, will the story of traditional ETFs/indices devouring liquidity be repeated in the cryptocurrency circle? We can't judge this, but forms such as altcoin DAT and staking ETFs have officially announced an upcycle of leverage. Image caption: Combination of coin stocks and bonds, image source: @zuoyeweb3 Tokens as collateral, in the field of DeFi and traditional finance are increasingly weak, the chain needs USDC/USDT/USDS, they are all variants of U.S. bonds in some form, off-chain need stablecoins to become a new fashion, before that, ETFs and RWA have made their own practices. To sum up, there are roughly 6 types of currency stocks and bonds in the market: – ETFs ( futures, spot, pledge, general ) – Coin stocks ( financialization means to transform on-chain use ) – Coin enterprise IPO (Circle Represents the staged “hard cap” ) of the stablecoin trend – DAT (MSTR Coin Bonds v.s ETH Coin Stocks v.s ENA/SOL/BNB/HYPE ) – Tokenized U.S. Bonds, Funds (Ondo RWA Theme ) – Pre IPO Market Tokenization ( has not yet formed a scale, dangerous silence cycle, on-chain transformation of traditional financial ) The end of the leverage cycle and the timing of exit cannot be predicted, but it can outline the basic face of the cycle. In theory, when the altcoin DAT appeared, it was already the top of the long cycle, but just as BTC could trade sideways around $100,000, the US dollar / US debt decided to completely virtualize, and the momentum released needed the market to digest for a long time, and this digestion was calculated in 30 years: the Boer War to Britain abandoning the gold standard (1931-1902=29), Bretton Woods system (1973-1944=29)。 10,000 years is too long, just a race for the day, at least until the 2026 mid-term elections, Crypto still has a good year. Photo caption: The current situation of the currency stock and bond market, image source: @zuoyeweb3 Statistics of the current market structure, coin IPOs belong to the highest-end and niche track, and only a very small number of coin companies can complete the IPO of U.S. stocks, which also shows that it is the most difficult to sell themselves as assets. Second, it will be easier to resell around existing high-quality assets, such as BlackRock, which has become the undisputed giant in the spot BTC and ETH ETF space, and newer staked ETFs and general-purpose ETFs will become new highs in the race. Secondly, the DAT ( treasury ) strategy (Strategy) company rides the dust, and it is also the only player that has completed the three-party rotation of coin stocks and bonds, that is, based on BTC can issue bonds, thereby supporting the stock price, and the spare funds continue to buy BTC, indicating that the market recognizes BTC As collateral, the security also recognizes that Strategy itself “represents” the value of BTC's assets. BitMine and Sharplink in the ETH treasury company field only completed the coin and stock linkage at best, and they did not convince the market to issue bonds based on their own strength ( did not calculate the part of the ) issued by the capital operation at the time of buying coins, that is, the market partially recognized the value of ETH, but did not recognize the value of the ETH treasury company itself, and the mNAV was lower than 1 ( the total value of the share price is less than the value of the asset held ) is just the result. But as long as the value of ETH is generally recognized, then the high-leverage race will produce winners, and it is only the long-tail treasury companies that will eventually fall…