Analysis: The Monte Carlo model predicts that the price of Bitcoin will peak at $713,000 in 6 months

PANews reported on March 10 that although the Crypto Fear and Greed Index on March 10 continued to show “extreme fear”, a Bitcoin market simulation still predicted a bullish trend in the second half of 2025, according to Cointelegraph. Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant used Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the price of Bitcoin and provide a six-month forecast for the crypto asset. A Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and assesses risk through random sampling. It can generate a variety of possible scenarios based on variables such as volatility, market trends, etc. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates Bitcoin’s average final price of $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, from a broader perspective, the Bitcoin price is expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (i.e., the 5th percentile return) and $713,000 (95th percentile return). However, it is important to note that the Monte Carlo model relies heavily on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that the asset value follows a random path with constant drift parameters. In this analysis, Bitcoin’s inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, Monte Carlo analysis is as uncertain as “rolling the dice”. Last week, Quant also highlighted the correlation between the total crypto market capitalization and the global liquidity index, suggesting that the total market capitalization could reach a new high of more than $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.