Arthur Hayes: April may be extremely weak in the market, and the heating up in liquidity after May will drive the crypto bull market
Arthur Hayes, a well-known crypto community KOL, predicted in his latest blog post "Heatwave" that the U.S. tax collection will pull liquidity out of the market from mid-April to early May, and the market may be extremely weak as the Federal Reserve continues to shrink its balance sheet. However, from May 1, a new crypto bull market is expected to begin as the Fed slows the pace of balance sheet reduction and the US Treasury uses funds to stimulate the market.
Hayes pointed out that the Fed has "transfused" the banking system in disguise, including by easing bank capital requirements, so that it can hold more Treasury bonds. The U.S. Treasury has also been issuing additional short-term Treasuries to absorb trillions of dollars of idle money from the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility. Both of these measures are conducive to improving market liquidity.
However, Hayes expects the April 15 tax limit to take a significant amount of money out of the system. At the same time, the Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. This, coupled with the possibility of short-term oversold Bitcoin due to the expected block reward halving on April 20, will put significant pressure on the market.
Hayes advises investors to be cautious in April and bold after May. He revealed that he has made a profit by closing positions in tokens such as MEW, SOL, NMT, etc., and has transferred funds to the USDe stablecoin of the Ethena platform for pledge. Hayes said that if he can avoid the risk of losses in April, he will have enough ammunition to build positions in various crypto assets in May and fully enjoy the bull market dividends.