The Xi-Trump meeting will take place on October 30! The Federal Reserve (FED) cuts interest rates, with a wave of technology earnings reports coming in, Bitcoin experiences dramatic Fluctuation.

On October 30, the financial markets are迎來 an extremely critical day, with three major events capable of shaking the market taking place in quick succession: the meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leaders, the Federal Reserve (FED)'s interest rate decision meeting, and the latest financial reports from several technology giants. Bitcoin failed to break through 116,000 USD, falling back to around 112,000 USD, while Ethereum lost the 4,000 USD mark, and investors should be wary of drastic fluctuations.

Core Issues of the Trump-Xi Meeting: High-Risk Negotiations on Fentanyl for Tariffs

(Source: WSJ)

The highly anticipated Xi-Trump meeting will take place in South Korea. According to the latest news, the meeting is scheduled for 9 AM local time on the 30th. The core topics of this discussion will revolve around the exchange negotiations on fentanyl regulation and trade tariffs. The Wall Street Journal quoted sources indicating that the U.S. proposed that if China can strengthen export controls on fentanyl precursor chemicals to curb the rampant spread of this potent opioid in the United States, Washington would consider withdrawing some tariffs on Chinese goods.

The specific plan may include reducing the 20% tariff related to fentanyl by 10 percentage points. This concession is quite substantial, as the 20% tariff has already imposed a heavy burden on Chinese exporters, and cutting it in half to 10% would significantly lower trade costs. However, this concession is not unconditional; China needs to take substantive actions on the regulation of precursor chemicals for fentanyl. The fentanyl crisis has caused tens of thousands of deaths annually in the United States and has become a serious public health issue. The Trump administration has linked this issue to trade negotiations, reflecting its response to domestic public opinion pressure.

As part of the exchange, in addition to possibly committing to strengthening regulations, China may also consider postponing the implementation of new export regulations on rare earths and expanding purchases of American soybeans and other agricultural products. Rare earths are key materials for manufacturing electric vehicles, wind turbines, and many high-tech products, with China controlling about 70% of the global rare earth supply. If China imposes stricter export controls, it would have a significant impact on the global supply chain. Postponing the implementation of new regulations would be an important concession for the United States, helping to alleviate supply chain tensions.

The outcome of the Xi-Trump meeting will directly affect the future direction of the US-China trade war and have far-reaching impacts on the global supply chain and commodity markets. If progress is made in the negotiations, risk sentiment in the market may improve, driving up stock markets and cryptocurrencies. If the negotiations break down, it may trigger safe-haven sentiment, pushing up the US dollar and gold, while risk assets come under pressure. This uncertainty makes October 30 a critical day that traders must be highly alert to.

Key Negotiation Chips of the Trump-Xi Meeting:

US Commitment: To reduce the 20% fentanyl-related tariff by 10 percentage points.

China's Commitment: Strengthening export controls on fentanyl precursor chemicals

China may make concessions: Delay the new regulations on rare earth exports and expand the purchase of American soybeans.

Negotiation Location: South Korea

Time: 9 AM local time on October 30

The Federal Reserve (FED) cuts interest rates by 25 basis points as a certainty, but Powell's speech is more crucial

(Source: Trading View)

At 2 AM Taiwan time on the 30th, the Federal Reserve (FED) is set to announce its latest interest rate decision. According to widespread market expectations, it is almost certain that the FED will announce a rate cut of 1 basis point (0.25 percentage points, 25 basis points) at this meeting, marking the second consecutive rate cut since September. This expectation has already been fully reflected in market prices, with the implied probability of a rate cut in the futures market exceeding 95%.

However, what the market may be more concerned about is the future policy path signals released by the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the post-meeting press conference. Currently, the divisions within the Federal Reserve are becoming increasingly apparent, with one faction of officials advocating for immediate implementation of more accommodative monetary policy to address potential economic slowdown, while another faction believes that patience should be maintained and decisions should wait for more economic data to be released. Powell's statements will determine the market's expectations for the policy path in the coming months.

If Powell releases dovish signals, suggesting that interest rate cuts will continue in the future, the market may interpret this as an increase in concerns about the economic outlook, which is a double-edged sword for risk assets: on one hand, interest rate cuts are favorable for valuations, while on the other hand, economic concerns may suppress risk appetite. If Powell expresses caution, emphasizing data dependence and maintaining flexibility, the market may maintain its current moderate optimistic sentiment. If Powell unexpectedly releases hawkish signals, suggesting that the interest rate cut cycle may end earlier, it will have an impact on the market.

In the context of interest rate cuts, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies generally benefit because lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets. However, Bitcoin tested $116,000 on the 28th and failed, starting to oscillate downward after leaving a long upper shadow, reporting at $112,389 before the deadline, giving back nearly two days of gains. Ether also fell below $4,000, and the other top ten cryptocurrencies averaged a decline of 1~3% in the past 24 hours. This pullback may be a normal profit-taking before significant events, or it may indicate market concerns about uncertainty.

Tech Giants Financial Report Examines AI Investment Effectiveness

The main event in the business world will also take place simultaneously. Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) are expected to release their financial reports after the market closes on the 29th (Thursday morning Taiwan time). The market will closely watch Google's cloud business growth and advertising revenue performance. For Meta, investors will examine whether its massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) have begun to translate into substantial revenue contributions. The growth momentum of Microsoft's Azure cloud platform and AI services is also a key focus of the financial reports.

Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) are expected to announce their earnings reports after the market closes on the 30th (Friday early morning Taiwan time). The revenue growth and profit margins of Amazon's AWS cloud services will be key in assessing its profit outlook. Meanwhile, Apple's earnings report will reveal the sales performance of the latest iPhone, as well as whether the growth of its services sector can continue to inject momentum into the company.

The results of this series of financial reports will not only impact the stock prices of individual companies but will also be seen as a thermometer for the overall technology industry, especially in the field of AI. In a macroeconomic environment filled with uncertainty, the performance and outlook of these tech giants will have a decisive impact on market sentiment. The news that Nvidia will collaborate with the U.S. Department of Energy to build seven AI supercomputers has already driven the stock market to new highs, and if other tech giants also release similar AI advancements, it may further strengthen market confidence in tech stocks.

In contrast, the US stock market, under the backdrop of a turning point in the US-China trade deadlock, the expectation of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and last night's announcement by NVIDIA to cooperate with the US Department of Energy, pushed the three major indices to close at new highs on the 28th: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 161 points to close at 47,706 points, the Nasdaq index rose 190 points to close at 23,827 points, the S&P 500 index rose 15 points to close at 6,890 points, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index rose 26 points to close at 7,194 points.

Crypto Market Correction and Fluctuation Risk Warning

Next, we will soon迎接 the Fed interest rate meeting announcement on Thursday morning, the Trump-Xi meeting, along with the financial reports of major American technology companies. Investors should be prepared for increased fluctuations. Overall, October 30th will be a day full of uncertainties. From monetary policy, international trade relations to corporate fundamentals, these three major events are interlinked, and any minor shifts in their outcomes could trigger a chain reaction in the market.