XRP Price Prediction: Nearly 4.4 Billion USD in Open Positions, 4 Major Signals Determine Short-term Pump and Fall

XRP enters the last week of October, leverage can be rebuilt, and the total amount of open contracts is close to 4.4 billion USD. The XRP price is near 2.63 USD, while the market environment is calmer than during the crash window period, with the volatility index (VIX) close to the teens, the dollar index near 98-99, and the 10-year US Treasury yield near 4%.

Signal One: Unsettled Contracts Approaching 5 Billion Dollar Critical Point

The total value of XRP open contracts is approaching 4.4 billion USD, which is the first key signal to monitor this week's price trends. Open contracts represent the total value of all unsettled futures contracts, and an increase in this indicator means that new funds are entering to establish leveraged positions. When the amount of open contracts approaches 5 billion USD, it will provide stronger momentum for price extension.

The liquidation event at the beginning of October cleared the crowded long positions and formed short positions in the derivatives order book. This is why subsequent positive financing and an increase in open interest are crucial for path dependence. As positions are replenished, the relief phase typically lasts longer than the initial drawdown, as prices may encounter intense short liquidations. The Coinglass liquidation heatmap makes these fluctuations visible in real-time, and once these fluctuations participate, the squeeze will be extended.

Historically, when open contracts rise rapidly and funding exceeds 0.02% at least every eight hours for two consecutive days, the upward Beta coefficient approaches 1.8 to 2.6 times. This means that if Bitcoin rises by 6% to 9%, XRP could rise by 12% to 23%. Conversely, if open contracts decline and funding turns negative, it indicates that bulls are exiting, increasing the downside risk.

Key Points for Monitoring Open Contracts:

4.4 billion USD current level: has been rebuilt but has not yet reached extreme levels, providing room for bidirectional fluctuation.

5 Billion USD Critical Point: Mechanical extension power significantly enhanced after breakthrough.

Observe Funding Interest Rate: An increase in open contracts with negative financing may indicate a short trap.

Signal 2: Financing Interest Rate Changes from Flat to Moderate Positive Value

Capital has normalized, hovering between neutral and slightly positive, which is the second key signal. The interest rate is the fee paid by longs to shorts (or vice versa) in the perpetual contract market, used to maintain the balance between contract prices and spot prices. When the interest rate is positive, it indicates that longs are willing to pay a premium to maintain their positions, showing that bullish sentiment is dominant.

Historically, when the financing interest rate shifts from flat to a moderate positive value and remains sustained, it often marks the beginning of a trend reversal. This setup is particularly favorable for significant fluctuations when shorts are forced to close positions. The key threshold for monitoring the financing interest rate is exceeding 0.02% every eight hours for two consecutive days, indicating that squeeze risk is accumulating.

Once the financing interest rate continues to rise, the cost pressure faced by short position holders will force them to Close Position, and the act of closing positions is essentially a buying action, further driving up prices and forming a self-reinforcing upward cycle. This mechanism is particularly effective after the liquidation on October 10-13, as forced sell-offs have cleared out the excessively leveraged longs, leaving the empty positions as potential fuel.

Under the conditions of decreasing volatility, sustained strong spot inflows, a rapid rise in open contracts, and a funding mechanism that has exceeded 0.02% for at least two consecutive days every eight hours, the increase in short covering and triggering factors for closing positions has mechanically extended the upward beta coefficient, which has historically approached between 1.8 and 2.6 times. Conversely, if the financing interest rate is ≤ 0 and persists, it indicates cautious market sentiment, with the downward beta coefficient approximately between 1.0 and 1.3 times.

Signal 3: Macro Triangle VIX, Dollar Index, 10-Year Yield

(Source: CryptoSlate)

The macro driving factors set the backdrop for micro structures, which is the third key signal. The VIX volatility is below 20, consistent with the narrowing range of risk asset fluctuations, while the dollar index is below 100 and the 10-year Treasury yield is close to 4%, making the policy channels the focus ahead of the Federal Reserve's October meeting.

When the VIX is around 14 to 18, the dollar remains below 100, and the XRP financing shifts from neutral to moderately positive, the effective beta coefficient of Bitcoin is between 1.3 and 1.8 times, which aligns with market behavior since the reset. In this environment, risk appetite is higher, and funds are willing to flow into high-beta assets such as XRP. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting from October 28 to 29, followed by the release of GDP data on October 30 and PCE data on October 31, with these data releases being unusually compact.

Three Macro Scenarios and XRP Response:

Dovish Scenario: The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points and takes a dovish stance, VIX ≤ 16, DXY < 100, ETF inflows are stable. BTC rises 4%-6%, XRP shows 1.5-2.2 times Beta, expected to rise 6%-13%.

Neutral Scenario: GDP and PCE show weak performance but policy risks are under control, VIX index 14-15, capital is moderately aggressive. BTC rises 2%-4%, XRP applies 1.3-1.8 times Beta, expected to rise 3%-7%.

Hawkish Scenario: The Federal Reserve's stance is hawkish or economic growth unexpectedly declines, VIX > 22, DXY > 100, financing ≤ 0. BTC drops 6%-9%, XRP applies 1.0-1.3 times Beta, expected drop 6%-12%.

A US dollar index above 100 usually suppresses risk appetite until it falls back. After the VIX broke 22, it is recommended to use a bearish scenario forecast. As tariff rhetoric cools down, oil prices have rebounded from this month's lows, eliminating the tail risk that previously accompanied the drop in oil prices.

Signal Four: Coinglass Liquidation Heatmap Liquidity Cluster

Coinglass liquidation heatmap is the fourth key signal, making liquidity bands visible in real-time. Once the price enters these areas, liquidity clusters increase mechanical extensions, and thus positioning (rather than headlines) usually determines whether the impulse is fading or operating. When trading sentiment improves and the price trades close to the short liquidation range, a financing increase within 48 hours may trigger BTC to rise by 6%-9%, XRP to apply a 2.0-2.6 times Beta, and is expected to rise by 12%-23%.

The liquidation heatmap shows leveraged positions concentrated at specific price levels, which often become price magnets. When the price approaches a large number of short liquidation points, these shorts are forced to close positions (i.e., buy), which pushes the price further up. Conversely, when the price approaches a large number of long liquidation points, forced selling accelerates the decline.

During the clearing period from October 10 to 13, forced liquidations cleared leverage across major currencies, with the liquidation amount for cryptocurrency futures being around 19 billion USD. This liquidation reset the market structure, eliminated overly crowded long positions, and formed short positions in the derivatives order book. Funds moving above zero across multiple eight-hour intervals indicate that once these fluctuations participate, the squeeze will extend.

The 30-day correlation reading between XRP and Bitcoin is close to 0.8. Even though the Beta value fluctuates with changes in leverage and liquidity conditions, its directional Beta value estimation remains relevant. At the beginning of October, the net inflow of funds into crypto investment products exceeded $5 billion, setting a historical high. This has allowed Bitcoin to maintain its leading position in cross-market liquidity stacking, explaining why its trend still sets the standard for altcoin Beta.