The ISM PMI index indicates that the Bitcoin cycle may extend beyond historical norms.

The Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector (PMI – measuring production and service activities in the economy ) of the Institute for Supply Management in the United States (ISM) has long shown a remarkable similarity to the major peaks in Bitcoin's market cycles. If this trend continues to repeat, many experts believe that the current cycle of Bitcoin may last longer than in history.

The relationship between the ISM PMI and the price of Bitcoin was first introduced by Raoul Pal of Real Vision and quickly attracted the attention of macro analysts in the cryptocurrency space.

“All three previous cycle peaks of Bitcoin show a clear similarity to the monthly oscillation peaks of this index,” analyst Colin Talks Crypto commented, pointing out the correlation between Bitcoin's highest levels and the cycle peaks of the PMI.

According to Colin, if this relationship continues, “the current cycle of Bitcoin is likely to extend significantly longer than previous cycles.”

The ISM manufacturing PMI, reflecting the level of industrial activity in the US, has continuously remained below the neutral threshold of 50 for the past seven months, signaling a decline in the sector. A PMI above 50 would be a sign that the economy is expanding again, which in the past has often been accompanied by positive movements in Bitcoin prices.

At the beginning of this year, the PMI briefly surpassed the 50 mark before declining again, indicating that the manufacturing sector still has many unstable factors.

ISM Manufacturing PMI | Source: TradingEconomics## The U.S. manufacturing sector is facing numerous challenges in maintaining growth amid high tariffs and weak demand.

The PMI index has reflected a strong recovery in business confidence at the beginning of the year, partly stemming from optimism about the upcoming Trump administration and expectations of business support policies.

However, the prolonged effects of high tariffs, unstable trade policies, and weakening global demand have negatively impacted the manufacturing sector, causing the business cycle to potentially extend rather than accelerate as expected.

The latest ISM report shows that the PMI for September has a slight increase, prices are climbing while both exports and imports are decreasing, reflecting an uneven situation among various manufacturing sectors.

Although the manufacturing sector is facing difficulties, ISM notes that its share of the total economic output of the U.S. is decreasing, so the decline in PMI does not necessarily equate to a recession risk. ISM also points out that when the PMI index remains above 42.3, the overall economy still tends to grow.

A procurement manager in the transportation equipment sector shared with ISM in September that “business activity is still at a very low level,” while emphasizing that declining profits and the “burden of tariffs” have led to increased costs across the entire supply chain.

“We are facing strong price pressures both on the input and output for customers, as businesses begin to pass on tariffs as surcharges, causing selling prices to rise by up to 20%,” the official added.

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