Polymarket valuation big pump 1500%! Wall Street giants rush in, planning to return to the US market and issue coin.

Polymarket is negotiating a new round of financing, with a valuation between 12 billion to 15 billion USD. The project secured funding led by Founders Fund this year and reached a large-scale investment agreement with Intercontinental Exchange, aiming to achieve a 1500% rise in valuation within less than five months, planning to return to the US market and launch the POLY Token.

Polymarket valuation rises from 1 billion to 15 billion

According to Bloomberg, the crypto-native prediction platform Polymarket is in talks for a new round of financing, with a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion. Notably, its rate of rise is remarkable. In June of this year, the company, led by Shayne Coplan, had a valuation of just $1.2 billion after a $150 million financing led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund. By early October, with a large-scale investment agreement reached with the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), that figure had soared to $9 billion.

If this round of financing is ultimately completed at the high end of the target range, Polymarket will achieve a 15-fold valuation rise in less than five months, solidifying its market leadership in the field of predictive economics. Such a valuation leap is extremely rare in the history of the tech industry, typically only revolutionary technologies or business models can achieve such rapid value re-evaluation.

The explosive rise of Polymarket is not merely a reflection of investor speculation; it signifies a fundamental shift in financial markets towards information as an asset class. In a world where instant sentiment often drives the market faster than traditional indicators, prediction markets like Polymarket are emerging as a new tier of market intelligence, integrating speculation, data, and decentralized finance into a single ecosystem.

Polymarket Valuation Rise Timeline:

June 2025: 1.2 billion USD (Founders Fund leads with 150 million USD)

Early October 2025: 9 billion USD (ICE large-scale investment)

End of October 2025: 12 to 15 billion dollars (new round of financing negotiations ongoing)

Rise multiplier: Soared 10 to 15 times within 5 months

The valuation rise behind this is the explosion of trading volume on Polymarket. The platform demonstrated remarkable forecasting accuracy during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, attracting global media attention. While traditional polling organizations were still entangled in the election situation, Polymarket's real-time odds had already accurately reflected the final results. This proof that “the market is smarter than experts” has earned the prediction market widespread recognition and trust.

ICE and DraftKings Drive Polymarket Mainstream Adoption

Polymarket's collaboration with traditional finance and entertainment giants is driving the platform towards legalization. ICE's potential $2 billion investment is not just a financial boost, but also a strategic bridge connecting Wall Street infrastructure with blockchain market innovation. As the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE's involvement brings compliance and credibility from traditional finance to Polymarket. This endorsement could open the door for institutional investors to allocate to prediction markets.

To further promote development, Polymarket announced plans to serve as the designated settlement provider for DraftKings as it enters the prediction market. This collaboration is expected to blur the lines between sports betting and event prediction, expanding Polymarket's user base to non-crypto native traders. DraftKings is one of the largest daily fantasy sports and sports betting platforms in the United States, with tens of millions of users. If Polymarket becomes the backend infrastructure for its prediction market, it will gain unprecedented user rise opportunities.

This collaboration with traditional financial and entertainment giants marks Polymarket's transformation from a crypto-native platform to a mainstream financial tool. The involvement of ICE and DraftKings provides Polymarket with a compliance framework, user base, and brand reputation, all of which are key elements for crypto projects to go mainstream. From a valuation perspective, this strategic partnership is precisely the core reason why investors are willing to assign a valuation of $15 billion.

Cross-chain Expansion and Stock Market Integration

To maintain the rise momentum, Polymarket has recently launched Bitcoin deposit support and expanded its ecosystem to multiple chains, including Ethereum, Polygon, Base, Arbitrum, and Solana. This cross-chain strategy is extremely important as it lowers the entry barrier for users. Previously, Polymarket primarily operated on Polygon, requiring users to hold MATIC or USDC. Now, users can directly participate using Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other mainstream cryptocurrencies, significantly expanding the potential user base.

The platform has also launched a market for the rise and fall of stocks and indices, allowing users to bet on whether a specific stock or benchmark index will close higher or lower than the current price at a specified time — essentially combining market predictions with traditional financial instruments. This innovation has transformed Polymarket from a purely “event prediction” platform into a “financial derivatives” platform. Users can place bets on Apple's stock price, the S&P 500 index, etc. on Polymarket, which is similar to traditional binary options or spread contracts, but is built on a decentralized and transparent blockchain.

The platform set a historical record for the number of new markets created last month, indicating an increase in both user activity and market diversity. This improvement in indicators provides fundamental support for Polymarket's high valuation. Valuation looks not only at the scale of financing but also at actual user growth and platform activity. When the number of new markets created reaches a historical high, it means that Polymarket's ecosystem is expanding rapidly, rather than relying solely on existing markets.

US Market Returns with POLY Token Speculation

One of the biggest potential catalysts for Polymarket is its return to the U.S. market. The platform suspended its U.S. operations in 2022 due to regulatory uncertainties, but according to Coplan, it has now “received the green light to relaunch.” This is expected to significantly expand its liquidity base and market visibility. The U.S. is the largest financial market in the world and one of the markets with the highest cryptocurrency adoption rates. Returning to the U.S. means that Polymarket will gain hundreds of millions of potential users and opportunities for integration with U.S. exchanges and payment platforms.

The market is filled with speculation about the potential POLY Token, which may incentivize participation and introduce governance features, further decentralizing platform operations. Currently, Polymarket primarily uses USDC as the trading medium, and if a native Token POLY is launched, it may replicate the token economic models of other DeFi protocols: users staking POLY to earn transaction fee sharing, participating in platform governance decisions, or receiving discounts on trading fees. The launch of the POLY Token could serve as a catalyst for Polymarket's valuation to rise again, as it provides early users and investors with a direct value capture mechanism.

From a regulatory perspective, Polymarket's return to the United States requires approval from the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). The Trump administration's friendly attitude towards the crypto industry, along with Polymarket's collaborations with traditional financial institutions like ICE, have created favorable conditions for regulatory approval. If successful in returning to the U.S., Polymarket will become the first large-scale crypto prediction market operating in compliance in the United States, and this first-mover advantage is highly valuable.

Kalshi Competition and Prediction Market Arms Race

Although Polymarket dominates the crypto-native space, Kalshi's compliance model is more favored by institutional investors. Bloomberg reported that Kalshi recently received new investment offers valuing it between $10 billion and $12 billion, indicating that investor interest in prediction markets far exceeds early expectations. The two companies are competing to define the future of event-driven finance, each choosing a different path—Polymarket relies on crypto-native freedom, while Kalshi follows a compliance route.

The competition between Polymarket and Kalshi is no longer just a valuation battle, but a contest to define the future of predictive finance. Polymarket's advantages lie in decentralization, global access, and a crypto-native user base, while Kalshi's strengths are in U.S. compliance, institutional trust, and integration with traditional finance. The outcome of this competition could be a win-win: both can expand the overall size of the prediction market rather than a zero-sum game.

The current question is whether the surge in Polymarket's valuation is sustainable or speculative. The company's strategic partnerships, cross-chain integration, and regulatory return have built a strong growth narrative — but whether this momentum can be maintained will depend on user retention, liquidity depth, and responses to the constantly changing regulatory environment. If executed properly, Polymarket is expected to become a large CEX exchange in the prediction market space, turning public sentiment into global financial instruments.