Gate Research Institute: Bitcoin MVRV falls below the 365-day moving average, indicating the market has bottomed out | FalconX will acquire 21Shares

Encryption Asset Overview

BTC (+0.15% | Current price 108,254 USDT)

Since the drop two weeks ago, Bitcoin has been struggling to regain momentum. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has fluctuated narrowly between $108,488 and $107,824, with the MA5, MA10, and MA30 moving averages nearly converging, indicating that the market is at a critical decision point. The 4-hour chart shows that Bitcoin is consolidating between $108,000 and $116,000, slightly above the ascending trend line. This area has been tested multiple times, forming a short-term bottom, but the strength of the rebound is gradually weakening, reflecting a fatigue in buying momentum. From the daily perspective, Bitcoin is currently hovering around the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the key support area near the 200-day moving average at $108,000. Overall, the current price reflects the hesitation of both bullish and bearish sides in the market, with investors watching whether Bitcoin can hold the key support; otherwise, it may trigger further adjustments. Although the mid-term structure remains mildly bullish, short-term technical indicators have shown signs of fatigue.

ETH (-0.68% | Current Price 3,826 USDT)

In the past 24 hours, Ethereum has fluctuated within the range of $3,812–$3,836, successfully breaking through the MA5 and MA10 daily moving averages, and is steadily approaching the MA30 moving average. The 4-hour chart shows that ETH has entered a liquidity compression phase, with volatility continuously narrowing, as the market accumulates momentum to await a directional breakout. From the daily structure perspective, Ethereum is still oscillating within the mid-structure between the institutional demand zone of $3,400 and the supply zone of $4,600. Until the trend becomes clearer, the price is expected to continue consolidating within this converging range until a new volatility expansion signal appears. If the bulls can regain a foothold above $4,000 and effectively break through the resistance area above $4,200, the market is expected to rebound further to the $4,400 level, continuing the medium-term bullish trend.

GT (-1.17% | Current Price 15.65 USDT)

GT is currently priced at 15.65 USD, down 1.17% in the past 24 hours. Since October 13, the trading volume has been continuously shrinking, indicating a growing wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The price has fallen below the 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages, suggesting a weak short-term trend. The MACD has formed a death cross and has persisted for several days, with no signs of recovery, indicating an overall bearish technical signal. Currently, GT is at a key support level near 15.7 USD; if this level is breached, the next support may be in the 15.2 USD range. At present, the market has not shown any obvious bottoming signals, so attention must be paid to whether the trading volume can rebound and the repair of the short-term moving averages to confirm potential rebound momentum.

Daily Price Fluctuation Tokens

In the past 24 hours, the encryption market has seen a slight overall correction, with mainstream coins generally declining. BTC fell by 0.15%, ETH dropped by 1.03%, SOL decreased by 2.54%, and XRP and ADA both fell by over 2%. BNB became one of the few mainstream coins to rise, with an increase of about 1.29%, showing relative strength. Additionally, as most assets enter a short-term adjustment phase, YB, SOPH, and NIL tokens have performed well, and we will analyze the reasons for the rise of each token one by one.

YB Yield Basis (+22.41%, circulating market value 39.71 million USD)

According to Gate.io market data, the YB token is currently priced at 0.45 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 22.41%. Yield Basis is a DeFi platform that derives profits from market volatility, offering various sources of income, including trading profits and token staking rewards. The current TVL has reached 150 million USD, supporting assets like tBTC, cbBTC, and WBTC, with an annualized yield exceeding 38%.

Recently, the price of YB has risen mainly due to three major favorable factors: first, on October 15, YB officially commenced circulation and was listed on Gate and other trading and perpetual contract platforms, boosting trading activity; second, the project announced a total distribution of 10.625 million YB rewards to early LPs and Curve DAO supporters, stimulating market enthusiasm; third, Gate upgraded the YB contract to a maximum leverage of 50 times, enhancing short-term trading volatility. Overall, YB has experienced significant fluctuations in its early circulation phase, and the price is still in the market value discovery stage.

SOPH Sophon (+14.81%, circulating market cap 58.40 million USD)

According to Gate.io market data, the SOPH token is currently priced at 0.029 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 14.81%. SOPH is the native token of the Sophon network, which aims to promote the real-world adoption of blockchain through games, AI agents, and decentralized applications in the social category.

Market speculation suggests that recent fluctuations may be related to the layout of major funds. Sophon aims to make Web3 faster and easier to use. If the network ecosystem gains user recognition, the practicality of its token is expected to significantly increase, potentially offering long-term opportunities. However, competition in Layer 2 is fierce and adoption still has uncertainties. The vision for SOPH is promising, but execution is still in the early stages, and investors should pay attention to token unlocks and liquidity risks. Currently, the token price remains under pressure, with technical indicators leaning weak, and there may be downward risks in the short term.

NIL Nillion (+8.18%, circulating market cap 85.8622 million USD)

According to Gate market data, NIL token is currently priced at 0.3305 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 8.18%. Nillion is a decentralized sensitive data processing platform designed to provide secure and controllable data infrastructure for personalized AI, decentralized trading, identity, and other ecosystems. Its core is a secure computing network that can serve diverse resource networks such as IoT, agriculture, and supply chain.

Recently, the NIL Foundation launched its testnet to address the scalability and sharding issues of Ethereum, which is expected to enhance network performance and attract developers. At the same time, its “blind computing” technology shows potential in the fields of data privacy and AI, possibly leading to breakthroughs in privacy protection. From a market performance perspective, the NIL price has broken through recent resistance levels, indicating upward momentum.

Hot Spot Interpretation

encryption trading company FalconX will acquire ETF management company 21Shares

The encryption trading company FalconX is planning to acquire the well-known encryption asset ETF management company 21Shares to expand its layout in the encryption financial products and institutional investment sector. This acquisition aims to enable FalconX to expand from its traditional market-making and liquidity provision business into issuing encryption asset ETFs and structured products. Both parties stated that the newly merged entity will focus on developing fund services centered around encryption derivatives and structured investments. Although the transaction amount has not been disclosed, both parties confirmed that a cash and equity mix will be used. If this transaction is completed, it will become one of the largest mergers and acquisitions in the encryption financial industry this year.

FalconX was founded in 2018 and has processed over $2 trillion in trading volume for more than 2,000 institutional clients, with a valuation of approximately $8 billion in funding in 2022. 21Shares was also founded in 2018 and is a significant player in the cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETP) space, managing over $11 billion in assets as of September this year, and has launched more than 50 ETP products. This transaction represents a significant expansion of FalconX's product line and business model, and reflects the evolution of the crypto asset market from purely trading or liquidity platforms to “fund management + structured products”, indicating that more institutional funds may enter the crypto market through traditional ETFs and other packaging, thus driving the maturation and institutionalization of this market. Additionally, this transaction comes after regulators simplified the approval process for crypto ETFs in September, reflecting the accelerated integration of traditional finance and digital assets.

Bitcoin MVRV has fallen below the 365-day moving average, which may indicate that the market has bottomed.

On October 22, CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets stated that the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV) has recently fallen below its 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a signal that has historically appeared multiple times before the market forms cyclical bottoms. Based on historical data, each time the MVRV falls below the 365-day SMA, the Bitcoin price has seen significant rebounds: up 135% in mid-2021, up 100% in June 2022, and up 196% in early 2024.

Currently, the MVRV ratio is about 1.9, slightly below its 365-day SMA, indicating that Bitcoin may have once again entered an undervalued zone. This also means that the speculative overheating situation has cooled down, and long-term holders may start accumulating. If the MVRV rebounds from the current level, it could confirm that the recent adjustment belongs to a cyclical bottom, thereby supporting Bitcoin in launching a new round of increases in the fourth quarter. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin's short-term target range is raised to around $115,000, and if the latter part of the bull market initiates, it is expected to challenge higher levels. It is worth mentioning that gold has fallen 6.7% from the historical high reached on Monday, and market analysts suggest that this means gold has “temporarily peaked,” while the “rotation” of Bitcoin and altcoins may be beginning.

Mercer Park and Cube have reached a merger agreement and plan to invest $500 million to purchase SOL.

Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) Mercer Park Opportunities Corp. announced on October 22 that it will enter into a business combination agreement with Cube Group, Inc., an innovative company focused on a hybrid digital asset trading platform. The agreement between the two parties is valued at approximately $300 million, and upon completion of the merger, the new company is expected to be named Cube Exchange Inc., with plans to list on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada, followed by a dual listing on NASDAQ. Notably, the transaction includes a condition: prior to the merger, Mercer Park plans to acquire approximately $500 million worth of SOL tokens to enhance its financial reserves and achieve an annualized return of 7-9%+ through staking. The transaction is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2026 and is subject to standard procedures such as auditing and regulatory approvals.

In recent years, the merger cases between traditional SPACs and encryption asset companies signify that the convergence between markets is accelerating — Cube Exchange aims to build a bridge between “TradFi and DeFi” by leveraging public markets and the SOL asset pool, starting from the exchange and DeFi infrastructure. If this merger is successful, it will provide a new vehicle for institutional capital to enter the digital asset space, potentially further promoting the institutionalization and publicization of encryption asset services. <br> Reference Materials:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• Coingecoko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap
• WSJ, https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/crypto-trading-firm-falconx-to-buy-etf-manager-21shares-f77cb4d3
• Cointelegraph, https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio-cyclical-bottom-forming-below-110k
• Cision, https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/mercer-park-opportunities-corp-announces-acquisition-of-cube-group-inc–808934296.html

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Disclaimer Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risks. Users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products being purchased before making any investment decisions. Gate shall not be liable for any losses or damages resulting from such investment decisions.