Gold Marketplace Deep Analysis: Technical Indicators and Investment Strategies Interpretation

Analysis of the Factors Driving Gold Price Increase

Recently, gold prices have continued to rise, mainly driven by the following factors:

1. Escalating market risk aversion triggered by changes in trade policies
2. Increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with U.S. economic data showing increased downward pressure
3. Central banks worldwide continuously increasing their gold holdings, providing long-term support for gold prices

Other contributing factors include:

• Slowing global economic growth and persistent inflation pressures
• Declining confidence in the U.S. dollar
• Heightened geopolitical risk concerns

Technical Analysis Indicator Interpretation

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

• Currently, RSI is above 70, indicating the gold market may be overbought
• Investors are advised to watch for RSI falling back to the 50-60 range as a buying opportunity

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

• The MACD line is above zero, showing gold remains in an upward trend
• Recently, the MACD histogram has shortened, potentially signaling a short-term correction

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Gold Prices

1. Inflation Rate:

   • Current inflation exceeds expectations, favoring gold price increases
   • Investors should monitor changes in CPI and PPI data

2. Interest Rate Policy:

   • Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve support gold prices
   • Pay attention to FOMC meeting minutes and officials’ speeches to grasp policy directions

3. U.S. Dollar Index:

   • The dollar index and gold prices show a negative correlation
   • The current weakening dollar provides upward momentum for gold prices

Correlation Analysis Between Gold and Crypto Assets

Analysis shows that gold and crypto assets perform differently under various market conditions. Investors can tailor their portfolios based on their risk preferences.

Investment Strategy Recommendations

1. Short-term Traders:

   • Follow technical indicator divergences to seize short-term fluctuation opportunities
   • Set strict stop-losses to control risks

2. Long-term Investors:

   • Consider gradually building positions and diversifying entry points
   • Monitor global central banks’ gold purchasing trends to identify long-term trends

3. Portfolio Allocation:

   • It is recommended to include gold as part of an investment portfolio but not excessively
   • Combine with other asset classes such as stocks and bonds to achieve risk diversification

4. Physical Gold Investment:

   • Be aware that physical gold trading costs are relatively high
   • For long-term holding, consider secure storage solutions

5. Gold ETFs or Futures:

   • Offer higher liquidity and are suitable for flexible trading
   • Understand product features and related risks before investing

Precautions:

• Gold prices are highly volatile, with an average annual fluctuation amplitude of 19.4%
• Gold investment cycles tend to be long-term; holding for over 10 years is recommended to realize hedging effects
• Fully assess personal risk tolerance before investing
• Avoid over-concentrating funds in a single asset

Investors should develop suitable investment strategies based on their individual circumstances and market conditions, and allocate assets reasonably. When trading gold on mainstream CEX platforms, choose reputable and well-regulated trading platforms to ensure fund security and fair trading.