Is Solana Expected to Become the Most Decentralized Blockchain? Experts Provide In-Depth Analysis

Cyber Capital Founder and Chief Investment Officer Justin Bons recently put forward a compelling argument, suggesting that Solana’s economic model and development roadmap will enable it to surpass Ethereum in nearly all decentralization metrics. This viewpoint has sparked a new round of discussions within the industry about blockchain decentralization.

Solana’s Decentralization Potential

Bons’s core argument is based on an economic security and governance model. He believes that if a useful blockchain space can generate fees, and these fees support the validator economic model, then the network can sustain a broader and healthier group of operators. In his view, Solana has already embarked on this path, while Ethereum’s Layer 2 scaling solutions are shifting activity and corresponding fees away from the base layer.

Bons emphasizes, “Fees will ultimately pay for most of the security, scarcity, and decentralization costs.” He believes Solana’s proactive Layer 1 scaling strategy can keep these funds on-chain rather than externalizing them.

Comparison of Decentralization Metrics

Bons compared the Nakamoto Coefficient of the two networks, claiming, “ETH’s Nakamoto Coefficient is 2! SOL’s Nakamoto Coefficient is 19!” He attributes this gap to Ethereum’s decision not to implement native staking, which he argues has led to a “liquid staking provider dominating the staking market.”

In terms of governance, Bons made the most striking contrast: “ETH has centralized governance! SOL has decentralized governance!” Although this statement is intentionally provocative, it aligns with his overall argument that decentralization is not just about hardware or validator count but is a characteristic formed by fee-funded security, staking distribution, and stakeholder power.

Security Budget Analysis

Bons introduced the concept of a “security budget,” defining it as a function of market capitalization, fee income, and inflation, adjusted based on staking participation and attack thresholds. According to his calculations, Ethereum’s security budget is approximately $50.5 billion, while Solana’s is about $25.3 billion. This leads him to conclude, “SOL’s price only needs to double to surpass ETH’s security budget.”

Solana vs Ethereum: Structural Differences

Bons believes that because Ethereum “has not significantly expanded its Layer 1,” the network allows Layer 2 solutions to “capture most of the fees,” which weakens the security budget of the base layer and, in the long run, reduces decentralization space. He points out that this design choice also impacts governance: by refusing to implement on-chain stakeholder governance on Layer 1, Ethereum has centralized effective decision-making at the social level, whereas Solana, though imperfect, has established an on-chain governance social contract that can evolve with the validator economic model.

In-Depth Technical Analysis

Nakamoto Coefficient Calculation Method

The Nakamoto Coefficient is an important indicator of a blockchain network’s decentralization level. It measures how many of the largest nodes need to be controlled to take over the entire network. The calculation steps are:

1. Rank all nodes by stake or hashrate
2. Start accumulating from the largest node until exceeding 33% of the total network
3. The number of nodes accumulated is the Nakamoto Coefficient

The significant difference between Solana’s 19 and Ethereum’s 2 reflects the notable disparity in power distribution between the two networks.

Validator Economic Model Comparison

The higher stake participation rate and yields on Solana help attract more validators, thereby increasing the network’s decentralization.

Future Development Trends

Bons predicts that as Solana’s fee-funded security and governance models mature, “SOL will eventually surpass ETH in all decentralization metrics.” He attributes this to the different development roadmaps of the two networks, rather than a simple cultural rivalry. Through Layer 1 scaling and fee capture, Solana can shift its security budget composition from inflation-driven to revenue-driven, while Ethereum’s Layer 2-focused design leaves the base layer relatively lacking in fee funds.

Although Bons’s views are provocative, they offer a valuable economic perspective on the long-term development of blockchain decentralization. As the cryptocurrency industry continues to evolve, this kind of economic model-based analysis will play an increasingly important role in assessing the competitiveness of different blockchain networks.