1. Market Overview

The current BTC market is in a weak oscillating state. According to K-line data, the latest price is 108150, derived from the closing price of the most recent daily and hourly K-lines. Over the past 14 days, the BTC price has fluctuated significantly between a daily high of 115410 and a low of 103528, showing an overall downward trend. During this period, BTC briefly rebounded above 113000 but then continued to retreat to around 108000. In terms of trading volume, there has been significant volatility recently, with the highest daily trading volume reaching 39212.7 (within 14 days data). In the past 48 hours, the hourly K-line shows that the market has attempted several upward spikes without success, with trading volume significantly increasing during certain periods but lacking momentum afterward. The latest hourly trading volume is only 77.27, further confirming the decline in market activity.
Combining news and analysts' views, the market atmosphere is cautious, with the mainstream opinion suggesting that it remains in a wait-and-see attitude with unclear long and short positions.

2. Technical Analysis
K-line data indicates that the BTC price has been declining for several consecutive days, retreating from the recent high of 115410 (14 days high) to the current 108150, with the overall trend weakening. On the daily chart, a series of medium bearish candlesticks have formed recently, and multiple daily K-lines show long upper shadows, indicating pressure on the rise, with bears dominating. In terms of support, the low point in the past 14 days is 103528, with the key short-term support area between 105500-106500, which has been tested multiple times and shows signs of stabilization. In terms of resistance, the range of 111000-112000 has seen several upward spikes followed by retreats, which is currently the main resistance zone. In the hourly K-line over the past 48 hours, BTC has shown several brief rebounds but has been constrained around the 108400-109000 range, with clear selling pressure above. On the indicator level, analysts have mentioned that both MACD and KDJ are in a death cross state, reflecting that the current downward momentum has still not clearly converged. After a slight rebound in trading volume 24 hours ago, it has shrunk again, indicating a decrease in market activity.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
The latest market news indicates that BTC market sentiment is becoming cautious. The news "Analysis: After the crash on 10.11, traders are turning to a more cautious spot trading model" reflects a decrease in market risk appetite. At the same time, reports indicate that long-term holdings continue to be distributed, and short-term whales are experiencing increased losses, supporting the judgment of capital outflows and market pressure. In terms of related policies, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly signaled interest rate cuts, and the market generally expects a warming up of easing. However, due to the U.S. government shutdown causing data delays, the market's grasp of economic trends is unclear, indirectly raising the volatility of BTC and the difficulty of restoring risk appetite. Recently, the decline in mortgage rates and the overall global easing trend are generally favorable for risk assets, but have limited direct promotion for BTC in the short term.

4. Analysts' Views
The integration of analysts' views is highly consistent with the current K-line trends. The "Three Horse Members Group" directly states "choose cautious trading, wait for opportunities," and "yesterday's contracts showed both long and short losses, indicating that the market is indeed a monkey market," confirming the market's oscillating orientation. "Captain Trading" pointed out: the daily line formed a long upper shadow bearish candlestick, with the Bollinger Bands trending downward, KDJ and MACD in death cross, and volume decreasing, predicting that the daily line will enter a wide oscillation range, providing a clear range of "support below 106500-105500 and resistance above 111000-112000," which aligns with the high and low points of the K-line. The "Great Beautiful Members Group" and the "Flying Members Group" are more bearish, emphasizing the current clear distinction between long and short strength, suggesting patience in waiting for a breakout direction, particularly pointing out the support at 105500-106500 and the pressure at 111000-112000. Overall, all parties have not expressed clear bullish signals, with strategies leaning towards oscillation or waiting for a breakout.

5. Future Trend Forecast and Operating Suggestions
Based on the above K-line trends and volume characteristics, BTC is likely to continue oscillating in the range of 105500-111000 in the short term. If the price breaks below 105500, there is a risk of further decline to 103528 (14 days low); if it breaks above 111000, it may retest the area above 113000. As both the daily and hourly lines show a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and analysts generally suggest an oscillation strategy, it is recommended that investors closely monitor the above range in the short term, primarily adopting a strategy of high selling and low buying within the range or waiting for a breakthrough to follow the trend. In terms of risk management, if it falls below 105000, one should decisively stop-loss to avoid deep decline risks; if it can break through 111000 with increased volume, then one may appropriately increase position.

6. Risk Warning
It is worth noting that both the daily and hourly lines of BTC show significant oscillation and volatility characteristics, making it difficult to establish a strong unilateral market in the short term. The highest point in the past two days is 109423 and the lowest is 107610, with significant fluctuations; trading volume occasionally expands, indicating that some funds are attempting to speculate. Considering the impacts of fundamentals and policies, the uncertainty is high. Investors should closely monitor the support and resistance positions in the range and adjust their positions in a timely manner. In operations, it is crucial to avoid chasing up or down, strictly set stop-loss orders, and avoid exacerbating losses due to extreme market conditions. Overall, BTC's short-term trend is unclear, and oscillation range operations are advisable, with a high focus on the breakthrough status of the key range of 105500-111000 as the main operational basis.