Wow, the market has been really hot lately, especially with TSL and Micron attracting a lot of follow. Currently, the S&P 500 index has reached a new high, actually settling at 6600.21 points! These values can be described as "adding fuel to the fire," especially against the backdrop of rising unemployment rates and falling wholesale prices, everyone is almost certain that the Fed will cut the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points next week.

This week, the index rose by 1.6%, but this also led some stocks to an overbought situation, with Tesla and Micron being the most notable. According to CNBC, the most dazzling stocks in the S&P 500 rose more than 5%, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeded 70. Typically, this indicates that the market is too aggressive, which may lead to prices rising too quickly.

Micron's RSI reached 81.2, while TSL also has 75.6, placing them both in a high-risk position vulnerable to price fluctuations, especially when market investors consider cashing out.

Let's talk about Micron now. This week it broke its highest record since 2020, with its stock price soaring 20% in five days, marking the largest increase since March 2020. This performance was driven by Citi raising its price target, increasing its valuation to $175, which is 11% higher than last Friday's closing price.

In the report released by analyst Christopher Danely, he pointed out:

> "Micron will announce its F4Q25 results after the market closes on September 23. We expect them to achieve results in line with expectations and provide guidance that exceeds consensus due to improvements in DRAM and NAND sales and pricing. We believe the ongoing recovery in the memory market is being driven by limited capacity and better-than-expected demand, particularly in the data center end market (which accounts for 55% of Micron's revenue)."

Recently, Micron's rise is not an isolated case; it is part of the overall market increase of $14 trillion since April of this year. However, such a high RSI may indicate that it is about to reach a peak, at least for now. Shareholders may take profits before the company's earnings are announced, which could also lead to market volatility.

As for TSL, it continues to rise in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, just like other large companies. This month, TSL's stock price has skyrocketed by 18%, further fueled by a nearly $1 trillion compensation plan proposed by the board during the week. Its RSI has now reached an "overbought" 75.6.

The rise of the market is not an isolated event. Investors generally expect the Fed to continue lowering interest rates after a pause, with actions anticipated as early as this Wednesday, and the market expects at least 150 basis points of rate cuts over the next year. Looking back in history, since the 1970s, every time there has been a recovery in rate cuts after a pause of more than six months, the average annual gain of the S&P 500 has been 15%; while in a typical rate cut cycle, the average gain after the first rate cut is 12%.

But the current question is whether the Fed's interest rate cuts have already come "too late." The unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since 2021, and although growth is still decent, risk signals have begun to accumulate. Some traders have shifted towards small companies, hoping they can benefit from lower borrowing costs, while others continue to favor super large companies like TSL and Micron.

Investors are closely following the Fed's statement this Wednesday, especially Chairman Powell's press conference. The focus of attention is the "dot plot," which indicates the Fed's interest rate expectations.

As expected by the market, the small-cap Russell 2000 index has risen 7.5% this year, while the S&P 500 has grown nearly 12%. If interest rates decline rapidly, the gap between the two may narrow, but if the Fed acts slowly or economic growth slows, this expectation may fall through. Looking forward to your thoughts, let's chat! 😊