On-Chain Data Shows Why ONDO Price Could 2X Next

Something unusual is brewing beneath the surface of Ondo Finance. After the crypto flash crash on October 10, the ONDO price has been stuck between $0.66 and $0.84, barely moving while other altcoins found fresh momentum

According to Gerhard from the Bitcoin Strategy YouTube channel, that calm might not last much longer. The on-chain data paints a picture that could hint at something bigger for Ondo, maybe even a path toward $2.00 if the tides turn.

Why the ONDO Price Has Struggled Despite Platform Growth

Gerhard points out something that has many investors scratching their heads. The total value locked on the Ondo platform keeps growing, meaning more capital is flowing into the ecosystem. That usually supports a rising token value. Yet, the ONDO token has lagged behind much of the altcoin market since mid-2023.

The reason seems to lie in supply. Ondo’s circulating tokens ballooned from 1.5 billion to 3.4 billion over time. Only about 33.9% of the full supply has been unlocked, and more is coming every few months. Each unlock brings new selling pressure, even if gradual. When more tokens enter circulation faster than demand grows, the ONDO price naturally feels the weight.

Gerhard calls it the silent drag steady platform progress on one side and relentless token issuance on the other. The battle between those two forces could explain why ONDO hasn’t yet reflected the project’s expanding fundamentals.

What the On-Chain Data Reveals About Investors

The data also shows who is holding and who is leaving. Retail wallets with roughly $1,000 worth of Ondo have been rising. More small investors are buying slowly. Whale wallets, those holding around $100,000 or more, have declined. Gerhard admits that trend worries him because large holders often anticipate market shifts before others.

Crypto history tends to favor the whales. They usually exit before the market dips and reenter when the bottom feels too painful for most. For now, their exit might reflect caution ahead of the next token unlock, expected in January.

Short-Term Pressure From Futures Markets

Spot trading tells only half the story. Most ONDO price movements are now driven by perpetual futures markets, where traders bet on price direction. Gerhard’s analysis shows around $12 million traded on spot markets in 24 hours compared to nearly $70 million in futures.

Funding rates,a measure of whether traders are betting long or short, have turned negative for ONDO since the crash. That suggests more traders are betting on a price drop than a rally. For comparison, many other altcoins already saw funding rates flip positive again.

This imbalance may keep short-term pressure on ONDO until futures traders regain confidence. Yet, such setups can create spring-like tension. If negative sentiment becomes too crowded, any positive catalyst can trigger a sharp move upward as short positions unwind.

Comparing ONDO and the Trump Token

Gerhard also compared the ONDO token with the Trump token to explain how tokenomics shape long-term outcomes. The Trump token has seen steady underperformance due to constant new token releases. Ondo faces a similar challenge, though the project itself delivers genuine real-world asset tokenization value.

That contrast makes Ondo’s case interesting. While the Trump token struggles from pure inflation and hype cycles, Ondo combines steady growth with structural selling pressure. Once the unlock curve slows and the platform keeps expanding, the ONDO price might finally have room to breathe.

Read Also: How Could the December Bittensor Halving Affect TAO Price?

Why ONDO Could Double Next

A rebound in the ONDO price depends on two main shifts. First, the supply unlock pace will start to slow after January. Each subsequent release adds less dilution than the last. Second, if futures funding flips back to positive and whales return, that could confirm renewed accumulation.

Gerhard believes patience could pay off once short-term traders give up and long-term investors take over. The fundamentals rising platform usage, growing total value locked, and eventual stabilization in supply a

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The post On-Chain Data Shows Why ONDO Price Could 2X Next appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.