XRP Price Prediction: Is a Breakthrough at 2.5 USD Imminent? Bipartisan Roundtable Talks Ignite Regulatory Hopes, Government Shutdown and ETF latency Remain Headwinds.

XRP ended its two-day decline on October 23, with a slight rebound of 1.22%, closing at $2.3948, mainly boosted by the bipartisan lawmakers' roundtable discussions on the “Market Structure Act.” However, the Senate deadlock, government shutdown risks, and the delayed approval of the XRP Spot ETF continue to suppress progress in institutional adoption. Technically, XRP remains below the 50-day and 200-day EMA, with key resistance level at $2.5. This article will delve into legislative dynamics, price movement, and bullish and bearish catalysts.

Policy Dynamics: Bipartisan Roundtable Talks Promote Legislation, but Trust Crisis and Government Shutdown Hinder Progress

On October 23, leaders of the cryptocurrency industry held multiple rounds of roundtable discussions with Democratic and Republican lawmakers, focusing on the revision of the “Market Structure Bill.” Senator Kirsten Gillibrand actively promoted the discussion, emphasizing the need to strengthen the CFTC's regulation of digital assets, and reiterated her efforts in 2022 with Cynthia Lummis to introduce the “Responsible Financial Innovation Act”—which made little progress in the anti-crypto regulatory environment of the Biden-Gensler era.

Reporter Eleanor Terrett shared details of the discussion: The meeting opened with a 30-minute introduction by industry leaders, covering “the top highlights each participant hopes to incorporate into the bill.” Senators warned the crypto industry not to act as the “arm” of the Republicans and pointed out that the previous leak of the DeFi proposal undermined trust, while public protests would further delay legislation.

The atmosphere at the separate roundtable with the Republican Party and the industry was “relaxed”. The consensus included strengthening anti-money laundering (AML) and the Bank Security Act (BSA), but the biggest challenge lies in the definition and regulation of DeFi. There are suggestions to have bipartisan and industry representatives review the bill line by line to resolve differences.

Political Background: The White House supports the bill, but the Senate deadlock and government shutdown pose obstacles

The White House reiterated its support for the Market Structure Act, with crypto czar David Sacks calling it a priority and promising to provide necessary assistance. However, the risk of a government shutdown in the United States persists, as the Senate failed to pass the spending bill with a vote of 54-45 (60 votes required), and the deadlock has extended to 23 days, with the next vote scheduled for October 27. The shutdown not only delays the legislative process but also directly impacts the launch of the XRP Spot ETF, suppressing institutional capital inflow.

XRP is highly sensitive to legislation: After the bill was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on July 17, XRP surged by 14.69%. Clear regulation will end the risks of “regulatory enforcement through law”, but the current macro environment exacerbates uncertainty.

Price and Technical Analysis: XRP Struggles Below Key EMA, $2.5 Resistance Becomes a Bull-Bear Battleground

XRP rose by 1.22% on October 23, partially recovering from the previous day's fall of 2.40%, but underperformed compared to the overall cryptocurrency market (+2.17%). The technical indicators show that XRP is still below the 50-day EMA (2.6959 USD) and the 200-day EMA (2.6107 USD), confirming a short-term bearish deviation.

• Support level: 2.2 USD (psychological level), 2.0 USD (strong support), 1.9 USD (rebound bottom line)
• Resistance Level: 200-day EMA (2.6107 USD), 50-day EMA (2.6959 USD), as well as the integer levels of 2.5 USD, 2.7 USD, and 3.0 USD.

The EMA indicator reflects the medium-term trend. If it cannot break through the 200-day EMA, the downside risk still exists. Traders need to pay attention to the combination of trading volume and macro events.

Catalysts and Scenario Analysis: Bearish and Bullish Factors Intertwined, ETF and Legislation as Core Variables

Bearish Scenario: If the following events occur, XRP may fall towards the 2.2 USD support.

• BlackRock abandons the iShares XRP Trust plan, with no timeline for the ETF launch.
• Senate deadlock continues, government shutdown hampers ETF approval and legislation
• Blue-chip companies avoid XRP as an asset reserve, demand is weak.
• OCC rejects Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered bank license
• SWIFT maintains dominance in global remittances, limiting Ripple's market expansion

Bullish Scenario: The following catalysts may drive XRP to break through $2.5

• The US and China reached a trade agreement, easing global macro pressures.
• The Senate passed a temporary spending bill to end the government shutdown.
• BlackRock submits XRP Spot ETF S-1 filing, SEC fast approval
• Enterprises widely adopt Ripple technology and incorporate XRP into their Treasury reserves.
• The “Market Structure Act” has made progress in Congress, and Ripple has obtained a banking license.
• The demand for XRPL mainnet surges, challenging SWIFT's market share

Ripple Latest Developments

Enterprise-level acquisition

• Acquisition of GTreasury: Ripple announced on October 16 that it has acquired the enterprise financial management software provider GTreasury for $1 billion. This acquisition aims to expand Ripple's digital asset infrastructure into the global enterprise financial management market, which is worth trillions of dollars.
• Corporate Financial Layout: This acquisition is Ripple's third major acquisition of 2025, following the acquisitions of the cryptocurrency prime broker Hidden Road and the stablecoin payment platform Rail. These initiatives are aimed at strengthening Ripple's position in the corporate finance sector and expanding its range of services.

XRP Ledger (XRPL) Technology and Ecosystem Upgrade

• Privacy Upgrade: On October 6, Ripple's Engineering Director J. Ayo Akinyele announced a significant privacy upgrade for XRPL, allowing users to conduct private transactions while complying with global regulations through zero-knowledge proof technology.
• Multi-Purpose Token (MPT): XRPL activated the Multi-Purpose Token amendment on October 1, introducing a new form of interchangeable token and supporting metadata to be stored directly on the ledger, thereby improving the efficiency of token interactions.
• XRP Treasury: Evernorth, a company supported by Ripple, is going public on Nasdaq through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), planning to raise over $1 billion to establish the XRP treasury. Japanese gaming company GUMI is also involved in the investment.

Institutional and Ecological Cooperation

• Banking Cooperation: Ripple submitted an application for a national trust bank charter to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on October 23, seeking to obtain a banking license. This move is seen as an important regulatory milestone for Ripple in the traditional financial sector.
• Federal Reserve Support: There are comments suggesting that the Federal Reserve's support for Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) may drive the return of XRP.

Conclusion: Policies and macro factors dominate the fate of XRP, investors need to closely monitor Senate voting and ETF dynamics

XRP's short-term price movement is highly dependent on the progress of U.S. legislation and global risk sentiment. If the Senate breaks the deadlock in the vote on October 27 and promotes crypto-friendly policies, XRP is expected to test the 2.5 dollar resistance level; conversely, government shutdowns and ETF delays may reinforce bearish trends. Investors should monitor U.S.-China trade headlines, U.S. economic data, and Fed interest rate expectations, adjusting their positions flexibly. Amid the intertwining of regulatory dawn and headwinds, the narrative of institutional adoption for XRP remains the core of its long-term value.